Forecast Free Essays

Dear Ms. Jones: In order to obtain the forecast for the fifth year we had to gather and analyze the data of the four previous years in your company. The trend (data behaving with the same frequency over the years) that was found was the following: The beginning months of the year are the ones with higher sales. We will write a custom essay sample on Forecast or any similar topic only for you Order Now As the months go by, sales continue decreasing until December, where sales come back up again. Now, let me explain how we were able to arrive to this conclusion. First, we calculated the average demand by adding up all the sales of all four years and dividing them by the number of months (48). Then, we came up with the ratio by dividing the sales of each period by the average demand. The seasonal index is then obtained by getting the average of the same month ratios of all four years. For example, the average of all the 4 January ratios. The seasonal index is an average that can be used to compare an actual observation relative to what it would be if we there were no seasonal variation. We arrive to the seasonal forecast by dividing the sales by the seasonal index. Then we get the trend line by adding the intercept plus the x-variable and multiplying that by each period. The trend forecast is what will show you the regular trend of the years. That is obtained by multiplying the trend line times the seasonal index. Here’s a snapshot of the trend of the what the fifth year would look like: And here is another graph showing the trend of the four previous years: As you can tell, the sales behavior repeats itself throughout the years. This trend seems to be very consistent. However, I must warn you that the p-value (percentage defective) in the summary output is significantly higher than . 06, (it is a. 404056) and this means this forecast is not very reliable. I also calculated the percentage errors; the absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 3. 85%. This error was calculated by dividing the absolute error (which we got by subtracting the trend forecast from the sales and using the absolute value of that), by the sales, and then getting the percentage of all the absolute percentage errors. I hope this helps you understand the trend of your sales throughout a year. The most important thing for you to identify is the months where you are having higher sales the possible reasons why those sales decrease as the years comes to an end. How to cite Forecast, Essay examples

Beowulf And Evil Problem Essay Example For Students

Beowulf And Evil Problem Essay The key to writing an epic poem is to show that there is a predominant hero who paved the way for a nation. This hero should be someone who shows qualities such as loyalty to his followers, bravery and courage just to name a few. Strophe 8 in Burton Raffels translation of Beowulf shows all of these qualities in Beowulf. Strophe 8 is the tail of Beowulfs first of three battles with deadly beasts. It starts out by telling the reader that Grendel is coming out from the marsh bearing Gods hatred394-395 revealing to all that Grendel comes from a hellish hole and is all that is evil. Little does Grendel know that this trip for prey shall not be as easy as the previous many. After devouring one man with ease, Grendel grasped Beowulf and found himself tobe at the mercy Beowulfs deadly grip. The battle through the beautiful hallof Herot proved to be successful when him who of all the men on earth was thestrongest(471-472) defeated the retched beast. Beowulf proved to all that hewould back down to no one. Any good battle can make a story exciting, and thatis exactly what the battle with Grendel does to this story. At the verybeginning of this strophe the reader is informed about Grendels living quarterssetting the mood in an evil tone. It is already known that Beowulf is the idealof good, thus setting up the ever-exciting battle of god versus evil. The battlewas so intense that the high halls rang, its roof boards swayed and Danesshook with terror(449-450). Such an intense battle is so enthralling that itis hard not to be enveloped in all the commotion. Grendel the beast who couldnot be defeated by any ordinary man whose hands were harder(434) and therewas nothing he could do about it. This great power Beowulf showed in the battletruly set him apart from all other normal men. The whole time I was reading thispart of the poem I was anxious to find the result of the battle. The translatordid an excellent job of capturing the parts of the strophe, which made it soexciting. The way it was described that Grendel snatched the first Geat drank the blood from his veins and bolted him down(421-425) shows how graphicthe language is in this poem making it much more exciting. I really becameinterested in the plot after this strophe because of the vivid and colorfulimagery that was used to describe the battle. Imagery is very important part ofcapturing your audience and this strophe did exactly that. When trying totranslate any type of literature it can be very hard to capture the excitementin the original work. When you have a specific point to get across it can bemuch harder, but in Beowulf is very clearly shown that Beowulf is loyal to hispeople, brave and courageous the true characteristics of a hero.

Leaders Are Born Not Made free essay sample

Leaders are born not made? What is a leader? According to Dr. Paul Hersey, leadership is working with and through others to achieve objectives. Given this definition, anyone in a position whose achievement requires the support of others can play the role of a leader. So in my understanding, a great leader is both born and made. Both parts are essential to a true leader. Some  people are born with innate qualities that predispose them to being leaders, and other people while not naturally gifted with leadership ability can acquire it. Moreover,  all leaders, born or made, can improve their ability with desire, experience and effort. At birth, we are all born with genes inherited from our parents, for a select few the genetic predispositions for the leadership qualities are more favourable toward leadership qualities. For example, our current president Benigno â€Å"Noynoy† Aquino III also known as PNoy, is in my opinion, a naturally born leader. We will write a custom essay sample on Leaders Are Born Not Made or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Being the son of former President Cory Aquino and Benigno Simeon Ninoy Aquino, Jr. , he has the genes of these great leaders who fought bravely for the country. He is a president who decides thoroughly and makes decisions that are right and just. After we are born  for the first few years of our lives we are in constant interaction with others, some to which we attach real and sustained admiration and others where this admiration is punctual. From those interactions we refine our values and our natural behaviours are reinforced positively, which would increase the frequency of the behaviours or negatively which would diminish the frequency of the behaviours. Before you become a good leader, you first become a good follower†, that statement is proved by Napoleon Bonaparte the â€Å"Emperor of the French†. Napoleon Bonaparte was a French military and political leader who rose to prominence during the latter stages of the French Revolution and its associated wars in Europe. His legal reform, the Napoleonic Code, has been a major influence on many civil law jurisdictions worldwide, but he is best remembered for his role in the war s led against France by a series of coalitions, the so-called Napoleonic Wars. But before achieving all this, he started from a scratch. He trained as an artillery officer in mainland France. He then followed orders from above until crawled his way up by showing his potentials until he finally was assigned to be a leader and led the successful invasion of the Italian Peninsula. Everyone can develop their capacity to lead. When someone is committed to, and practises using their leadership capabilities at all levels in their life, then they can and will develop their own potential as a leader. Therefore we can conclude there are indeed, born leaders. These are the people to whom others look, even from a very early age; they seem willing to be seen and heard, take risks, stand up for what they believe. They do have charisma, people want to hear what they have to say, they want to get things done and bring people along with them. In summary, I would conclude that while there are natural born leaders, leaders can indeed be â€Å"made† or developed if one adopts a growth oriented mind-set. The bottom line is, it is not how a leader comes by their skill that is relevant whether he was naturally born a leader or became a leader by acquiring the skills of being. It only matters that they possess the requisite skills for the job, and that they are willing to apply those skills for the benefit of those they lead. There is no perfect leader, no single right way to lead, and no shortcuts to become a great leader.

100 Persuasive Speech Topics for Students

100 Persuasive Speech Topics for Students There is a small but important difference between planning a persuasive speech and writing a persuasive essay. First, if you are planning a persuasive speech, you should think about a topic that can engage your audience. For this reason, you may want to consider a few topics before settling on the one that allows you to be more descriptive and entertaining. Another important factor when picking a persuasive speech topic is to choose one that can provoke your audience. If you stir up a little emotion in your audience members, youll keep their attention. The list below is provided to help you brainstorm. Choose a topic from this list or use the list to generate an idea of your own. Studying martial arts is good for mind and health.Competitive sports can teach us about life.Reality shows are exploiting people.Community service should be required for teens.These qualities make a hero.Its important to grow things in a garden.Violent video games are dangerous.Lyrics in a song can impact our lives.Traveling and studying abroad is positive.Journal writing is therapeutic.You should spend time with grandparents.The laptop is better than the tablet.Religion and science can go hand in hand.School uniforms are good.All-girl colleges and all-boy colleges are bad.Multiple choice tests are better than essay tests.We should not spend money on space exploration.Open-book tests are as effective as closed-book tests.Security cameras keep us safer.Parents should have access to students grades.Small classes are better than big classes.You need to start saving for retirement now.Credit cards are harmful to college students.We should have a royal family.We should protect endangered animals. Texting while driving should be illegal.You can write a novel.You can go to your college of choice.State colleges are better than private colleges.Private colleges are better than state colleges.We should do away with penny coins.Fast food containers hurt the environment.Plastic straws hurt the environment.You can eat and enjoy healthy snacks.You can become a millionaire.Dogs are better pets than cats.You should own a bird.Its unethical to keep birds in cages.Liberal arts degrees prepare better workers.Hunting animals should be banned.Football is dangerous.School days should start later.Night school is better than day school.Technical training is better than a college degree.Immigration laws should be more lenient.Students should be able to pick their schools.Everyone should learn to play a musical instrument.Grass lawns should be prohibited.Sharks should be protected.We should do away with cars and go back to horse and carriage for transportation.We should use more wind power.We sho uld pay more taxes. We should do away with taxes.Teachers should be tested like students.We should not interfere in the affairs of other countries.Every student should join a club.Homeschooling is better than traditional schooling.People should stay married for life.Smoking in public should be illegal.Students should live on campus.Parents should let students fail.Giving is good.Education makes us happier people.T​he  Ã¢â‚¬â€¹death penalty is good for society.Bigfoot is real.We should increase train travel to save the environment.We should read more classic books.Fame is bad for children.Athletes should stay loyal to teams.We should reform our prisons.Juvenile offenders should not go to boot camps.Abraham Lincoln was the best president.Abraham Lincoln gets too much credit.Students should be allowed to have cell phones in elementary, middle, and high school.College student-athletes should be paid for playing.Elderly citizens on fixed incomes should receive free bus rides.Colleges and universitie s should be free to attend. All American citizens should complete one year of community service.Students should be required to take Spanish classes.Every student should be required to learn at least one foreign language.Marijuana should be legal for recreational use nationwide.Commercial testing of products on animals should no longer be allowed.Felons who have served their time in prison should be allowed to vote once they are free.The drinking age should be bumped up past 21.Replacing fossil fuels with cheaper alternative energy options should be mandated.Churches need to contribute their share of taxes.The Cuba embargo should be maintained by the U.S.America should replace income taxes with a nationwide flat tax.The Bowl Championship Series, also known as the BCS, should be replaced with a true college football playoff system.Doctor-assisted suicide should be legal.Spammers- people who bombard the internet with unsolicited email- should be banned from sending their junk mail.Every automobile driver should be required to take a new drivers test every three years. Electroshock treatment is not a humane form of therapy.Global warming is not real.Single-parent adoption should be encouraged and promoted.Gun companies should be held accountable for gun crimes.Human cloning is not moral.Religion does not belong in public education.Juveniles should not be tried as adults. American workers should be guaranteed a three-day weekend by law.

Database Applications Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Database Applications - Essay Example A data mart is an easy data warehouse that focuses on one area of functionality or subject like finance, marketing and sales. A single department builds and controls a data mart for the whole organization. The sources of data mart ranges from external data, central data warehouse to operational systems. The implementation of a data mart takes place in a series of steps. The first step involves the designation of the schema that initiates the data request. The construction of the physical storage before populating the data mart with source systems data follows. One then accesses the data for initiating sound decisions. Finally, there is the management of data over time. Data mining analyzes data from diverse perspectives before summarizing it into useful information. Useful information is capable of minimizing costs and increasing revenue or doing both. The analysis of data requires the application of data mining software as an analytical tool. Data mining ensures analysis of data from different angles and dimensions. It also helps in categorizing and shortening the relationships of the data identified. Data mining seems to be a new term though it is not technologically. Over the years, many companies have applied the technology of data mining to sort through through supermarket scanner volumes besides conducting market research data analysis. Business intelligence is a blanket description of all the software applications use in the analysis of the raw data of an organization. The discipline of business intelligence comprises of reporting, online analytical processing, data mining and querying. It plays a crucial role in the improvement of decision-making, cutting costs and the recognition of new business opportunities by enterprising organizations. Besides, it can help the management of business organizations in the identification of those business

Becoming Animal, or Animals Become Us Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Becoming Animal, or Animals Become Us - Essay Example As a child her main character creates a friendship with a horse and throughout the friendship she is kind to the horse. One day, she sees that the horses eyes look lonely. Later, the horse is happy because it has a companion and she finds out that Blue (the horse) is actually only there as a stud. At this point, she notices that once his companion is gone, Blue also stays away from her as a human. This is significant because as Walker says, "Blue was like a crazed person†¦" (866) and she admits he was like that to her and then his attitude changes towards her when he "realizes" that his friend will not be back. "†¦I took apples to him, he looked at me. It was a look so piercing, so full of grief, a look so human, †¦to think there are people who do not know that animals suffer" (867). She wants humans to know that animals do indeed suffer and this horse suffered in the way that someone who was enslaved would suffer as their family was taken from them and sold. This was a very poignant parallel for her to draw because the reader was able to see the connection between animal and human. "Everything you do to us will happen to you; we are your teachers, as you are ours. We are one lesson" (866) is the point of the entire story which points to a partnership or "oneness" between human animals and other animals. Merchants writing is interesting because in some respects she sees a constant struggle between male domination and female natural instinct. She says that women are the nature aspects of life and actually sees the struggle between Adam and Eve continues throughout all of what we are doing to this day. As an example, she gives many ideas from other writers about how they felt it was possible for man to conquer nature. She quotes Thomas Huxley as saying that there should be a situation where a new Eden would be born and in it "every plant and every lower animal should

Business Law Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words - 2

Business Law - Essay Example What will happen if people will know about the duplication? Will there be legal consequences given the situation? Brief Answer One of the possible effects of what Sam Evening’s act is getting charged of theft by false pretenses. This includes false promises which are promises without intent of performance. In the case at bar, Sam Evening and Janet Evening promised to sell to the customers 1000 pieces of Limited Royal Wedding Collectibles which are handmade and personally painted and signed by the artist. The customers are being promised with the quality and the worth of the product. But selling a product made through the service of duplication company is making false pretenses and future promises about products. They are selling the products with intention to gain. Courts will require having a good materiality of misrepresentation. There should be causal relation between the swindler’s deception and the victim’s loss. The state of mind of the accused with respect to his intentions should be given great importance. In the case, Sam’s situation can be said to be a form of obtaining money by false pretenses. Another possible legal effect of Sam’s action is theft by deception. A different offense and can be define in a broader sense. This is the type of theft which uses deception to obtain property of another or service of another. This happens when a person has an intention to deceive other persons to gain. Sam Evening will also be held liable for damages under the Tort Law. These are the damages that he will eventually cause to his business partners under breach of partnership trust. Under the Tort Law, a relief is provided for those who suffered harm from the wrongful acts of others (Hg.org, Tort Law). Statement of Facts The case at bar is considering the possible legal issues that Sam Evening will face after selling products made through the service of duplication company. The products are to be sold as Limited Edition Royal W edding collectibles. There will only be 1000 limited collectibles to be sold for $100. Janet and Sam are so confident that the plates would increase in value. The sellers decided to guarantee the increase in value by promising to buy any plate back within five years from issuance at an appreciated price of 5% annually. Sam and Janet and a friend of theirs, Largess Bucks, each contributed $1000 to cover expenses Sam began producing and signing the plates and Janet created a website to advertise and sell the plates to customers in the United States. After handpainting, signing and numbering 37, Sam got tired and felt like he was doing all of the hard work. Janet did manage the website, including processing payments and shipping products. Their other partner is Largess did nothing. Sam Evening found a plate duplication service and decided to get the service of a duplication company to finish the works of the plates. The company required a minimum order of 1000 plates in order to perfor m these services and a down payment of $3000 to start the order with the remaining $7000 to be paid upon delivery. Unfortunately of the $3000 that they had contributed, $1000 had been used for initial supplies, $500 to set up the website payment processing service, $185 for initial shipping supplies and $315 had been paid to repurchase three plates out of a total of ten plates that had been shipped so far. Sam thought that income from the first set of plate sales would be given at the end of April. So Sam decided to take the $1000 remaining and added $1000 of his